For the third consecutive month, retail prices for fine jewelry and watches in the US market have held steady, reflecting relatively stable jewelry suppliers’ prices. This calming of prices comes after a somewhat volatile period during most of 2014 when both retail and supplier prices bounced around.  

 

·         The Jewelry Producer Price Index (JPPI) was 198.7 for March, reflecting slight price deflation from February’s index of 200.1, a decline of seven-tenths of one percent. On a year-to-year basis, the JPPI was down six-tenths of one percent, reflecting lower prices of commodities used in jewelry production.

 

·         The Jewelry Consumer Price Index (JCPI) was 160.1 in March, a decline of two-tenths of a percent. This was a very modest move from February’s 160.4, and was nearly even with January’s 160.3. In short, jewelry retail prices were steady from January through March 2015. On a year-to-year basis, the JCPI was down 2.7 percent, which reflected lower merchandise costs which some jewelers passed on to shoppers.

 

The graph below compares jewelry supplier prices (red line) with jewelry retail prices (blue line) since the beginning of 2014. Prices bounced around in 2014, but have been steady in 2015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Our outlook calls for continued price stability, at least until underlying commodity prices bottom. There seems to be no consensus forecast for the future of prices for gold, silver, and platinum, so it is not possible to predict when inflation will return to the US jewelry industry.

 

Jewelry Supplier Prices Holding Firm

Despite a continuing decline in underlying jewelry commodity prices, suppliers have not reduced – or raised – their prices for several months, as the graph below illustrates.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On a year-over-year basis, jewelry suppliers’ prices have been below the same month a year ago since March 2014. In March 2015, suppliers’ prices were about flat with March 2014, as the graph below illustrates.

 

 

Underlying commodity prices for jewelry components remain mostly below the prior month and prior year levels, as the table below illustrates. Thus, profit margins throughout the jewelry industry are not under as much pressure as in past years.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jewelry Retail Prices Stable

Retail prices of jewelry in the US market have been relatively steady since January, as the graph below illustrates.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On a year-over-year basis, retail jewelry prices have fallen since the beginning of 2014, as the graph below illustrates.

 

 

Outlook: Prices Likely To Be Steady

While diamond prices have shown some modest strength recently, precious metals prices have remained depressed – and roughly flat – when compared to historic levels. Until there are solid, sustainable gains in the price of gold, silver, and platinum, jewelry prices are expected to remain relatively stable.