India's Covid Crisis: The Tragic Cost of Complacency
April 22, 21
A tragedy is unfolding in India.
A nation that believed it had beaten the coronavirus pandemic just a few weeks ago now has two patients to a hospital bed, a critical shortage of oxygen, and round-the-clock cremations.
Yesterday it recorded 314,644 new infections, more than any country in the world on any day since the start of the pandemic. And there were 2,104 deaths, another record for India.
But those figures, shocking though they are, may tell only a fraction of the real story.
Many experts believe the true death toll could be 10 times the official figure.
Fewer than one in four deaths in India is medically certified, particularly in rural areas. And deaths where the virus is a factor, though not the primary cause, are not recorded as Covid deaths, unlike in other countries.
There is, as a result, a huge mismatch between government data and the grim reality.
John Burn-Murdoch, a Financial Times journalist, told his Twitter followers: "I collated news reports across seven districts, finding overall, numbers of COVID victims who have been cremated are ten times larger than official COVID death counts in the same areas."
Dr Bhramar Mukherjee, professor of biostatistics and epidemiology at the University of Michigan, told Reuters that officials were in a state of "data denial".
The Indian press is littered with reports of the mismatch between government figures and actual deaths. One day last week - 16 April, the Gujarat State health bulletin reported a total of 78 Covid fatalities.
But the number of bodies either cremated or buried in line with COVID-19 protocols in just seven cities in the state — Ahmedabad, Surat, Rajkot, Vadodara, Gandhinagar, Jamnagar and Bhavnagar — was 689. The figures clearly don't add up.
Surat, the Gujarat city where more than nine out of 10 diamonds globally are cut and polished, is in one of the worst-hit areas.
Its crematoria are operating 24/7 to cope with demand. The iron frame to one furnace melted because it's been in constant use and has had no chance to cool.
Two other crematoria - Sailor's Kurukshetra and Umra - reportedly dealt with 100 COVID-19 bodies a day last week. That's four times as many as the official coronavirus death toll for the area.
Surat's diamond factories have so far remained open during this current second wave, unlike last year, when they were subject to a series of lockdowns that effectively closed the industry down. But many of the city's million diamond workers have been heading back to their rural homes - 20 to 25 per cent, according to estimates.
The state branch of the Indian Medical Association, representing 30,000 doctors, went to the High Court earlier this week to demand an urgent two-week lockdown, to limit the spread. The court said it would reconvene next week (27 April) to discuss the matter further.
Barely a month ago India had all but beaten the virus. On 11 February the seven-day rolling average of daily deaths was at a low point of 89. Yesterday that figure was 1,648.
In early March, health minister Harsh Vardhan was positively euphoric when he declared the country was "in the endgame" of the Covid-19 pandemic. Today things have never been worse.
So how did it all go so terribly wrong? In a word . . . complacency. The country believed the battle was over and let its guard down. As the new cases dropped, people began gathering again, at weddings, social events, religious festivals, sporting fixtures, even political rallies, as the government relaxed its restrictions.
"There was a feeling of triumphalism," said K Srinath Reddy, the president of the Public Health Foundation of India. "Some felt we had achieved herd immunity. Everyone wanted to get back to work. This narrative fell on many receptive ears, and the few voices of caution were not heeded to," he said.
Today we are far from that endgame. India's already fragile healthcare system is close to collapse. It's just about run out of oxygen and other vital supplies. Only yesterday, 22 patients died at a hospital in Maharashtra state after a leak interrupted their oxygen supply.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi today responded to mounting criticism over his handling of the disaster. He announced he was canceling an election campaign visit to West Bengal - and would instead focus on the COVID-19 crisis that is decimating his nation Let's hope he can turn it around. Our thoughts are with all the people of India.
Have a fabulous weekend.